- DeepSeek challenges assumptions about AI market and raises new ESG and investment risks
- Efficiency gains significant – similar results being achieved with less computing power
- Disruption fuels doubts over Big Tech’s long-term AI leadership and market valuations
- China’s lean AI model also casts doubt on costly U.S.-backed Stargate project
- Analysts see DeepSeek as a counter to U.S. tariffs, intensifying geopolitical tensions
February 10 – The launch by Chinese company DeepSeek, opens new tab of its R1 reasoning model last month caused chaos in U.S. markets. At the same time, it shone a spotlight on a host of new risks and challenged market assumptions about how AI will develop.
The shock has since been overshadowed by President Trump’s tariff wars, opens new tab, but DeepSeek is set to have lasting and significant implications, observers say. It is also a timely reminder of why companies and investors need to consider ESG risks, and other factors such as geopolitics, in their investment strategies.
“The DeepSeek saga is a fascinating inflection point in AI’s trajectory, raising ESG questions that extend beyond energy and market concentration,” Peter Huang, co-founder of Openware AI, said in an emailed response to questions.
DeepSeek put the cat among the pigeons by announcing that it had developed its model for around $6 million, a thousandth of the cost of some other AI models, while also using far fewer chips and much less energy.
Camden Woollven, group head of AI product marketing at IT governance and compliance group GRC International, said in an email that “smaller companies and developers who couldn’t compete before can now get in the game …. It’s like we’re seeing a democratisation of AI development. And the efficiency gains are significant as they’re achieving similar results with much less computing power, which has huge implications for both costs and environmental impact.”
The impact on AI stocks and companies associated with the sector was severe. Chipmaker Nvidia lost almost $600 billion in market capitalisation after the DeepSeek announcement on fears that demand for its chips would be lower, but there was also a 20-30% drop in some energy stocks, said Stephen Deadman, UK associate partner at consultancy Sia.
As Reuters reported, power producers were among the biggest winners in the S&P 500 last year, buoyed by expectations of ballooning demand from data centres to scale artificial intelligence technologies, yet they saw the biggest-ever one-day drops after the DeepSeek announcement.
One reason for the massive sell-off was the timing – no-one was expecting such a breakthrough, nor for it to come from China. But DeepSeek also upended the prevailing narrative of how AI would develop, and who the winners would be.
Tom Vazdar, professor of cybersecurity and AI at Open Institute of Technology (OPIT), pointed out in an email that it called into question the premise behind the Stargate Project,, opens new tab a $500 billion joint venture by OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle to build AI infrastructure in the U.S., which was announced with great fanfare by Donald Trump just days before DeepSeek’s announcement.
“Stargate has been premised on the notion that breakthroughs in AI require massive compute and expensive, proprietary infrastructure,” Vazdar said in an email.
There are also dangers in markets being dominated by such a small group of tech companies. As Abbie Llewellyn-Waters, Investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management, pointed out in a research note, the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks had accounted for nearly 60% of the index’s gains over the previous two years. The group of mega-caps comprised more than a third of the S&P 500’s total value in December 2024.
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